Sunday, October 21, 2012

Wandering The Desert Of Time

Wandering The Desert Of Time

We came from all different times. We remember very little of who we are. But we know that we must make the journey. And we want you to join us.

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Forum for completely Out of Character (OOC) discussion, based around whatever is happening In Character (IC). Discuss plans, storylines, and events; Recruit for your roleplaying game, or find a GM for your playergroup.


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Documents add to evidence of Libya security fears

Members of Congress as well as the former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign are raising new issues about the Benghazi attack and how it was reported to the public. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

By NBC News and news services

House Republicans stepped up criticism of President Barack Obama on Friday over the deadly Sept. 11 attack on the U.S mission in Benghazi, Libya, releasing 166 pages of unclassified documents and photos that they said show administration officials repeatedly rejected ?requests for increased security despite escalating violence ? (and) systematically decreased existing security to dangerous and ineffective levels.?

The release of the documents, which came just days before Obama and Republican Mitt Romney discuss U.S. foreign policy in their last debate before the Nov. 6 presidential election, added to the political furor over the administration?s actions preceding the late-night attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, which claimed the life of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans.


Many of the documents released by House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa and National Security Subcommittee Chairman Jason Chaffetz had previously been made public, but others provided new evidence of growing concern about the security situation in Benghazi, and Libya in general.

One, a June 25 memo from Stevens, referred to incidents in Benghazi in which local elements attacked foreigners and specifically mentioned signs of growing al-Qaida sympathies in the city.

??(A) national security official shared his private opinion that the attacks were the work of extremists who are opposed to western influence in Libya,? Stevens wrote. ?A number of local contacts agreed, noting that Islamic extremism appears to be on the rise in eastern Libya and the al-Qaida flag has been spotted several times flying over government buildings and training facilities in Derna (a city east of Benghazi). Other contacts disagree however suggesting that the attacks could be the work of pro-Gadhafi loyalists or individuals who have been politically and financially marginalized by the (Transitional National Council)."

Another document, a cable dated Sept. 11 and sent to the State Department by U.S. Embassy personnel in Tripoli only hours before militant Islamists attacked the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, indicated that staff had growing concerns over security provided by Libyan militias.

?Host nation security support is lacking and cannot be depended on to provide a safe and secure environment for the diplomatic mission,? it said in part.

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In a letter to Obama, Issa, R-Calif., and Chaffetz, R-Utah, demanded the president fully answer questions about the administration?s response to the concerns.

"The American people deserve nothing less than a full explanation from this administration about these events, including why the repeated warnings about a worsening security situation appear to have been ignored by this administration,? it said. ?Americans also deserve a complete explanation about your administration's decision to accelerate a normalized presence in Libya at what now appears to be at the cost of endangering American lives.?

The senior Democrat on the committee, Rep. Elijah E. Cummings, D-Md., issued a statement in which he accused Issa and Chaffetz of attempting to use the tragedy to score political points.

Issa's letter "completely ignores sworn testimony provided to the committee, recklessly omits contradictory information from the very same documents it quotes, irresponsibly promotes inaccurate information, and makes numerous allegations with no evidence to substantiate them," he wrote.

Ben Curtis / AP file

U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans died in the attack on the U.S. consulate Benghazi, LIbya.

Separately, a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke with NBC News on condition of anonymity, said Friday that investigators still have not uncovered any evidence that the attack was preplanned.

"No one is ruling out the idea that some of the attackers may have aspired to attack the U.S. in Benghazi," the official said. "However, right now, there isn't any intelligence that the attackers preplanned their assault days or weeks in advance.? The bulk of available information supports the early assessment that the attackers launched their assault? opportunistically after they learned about the violence at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo. Of course, other factors may also have motivated participation in the attack."?

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State Department spokesman Mark Toner also cautioned that investigators are still piecing together events that led to the attack.

"An independent board is conducting a thorough review of the assault on our post in Benghazi,? he said. ?Once we have the board's comprehensive account of what happened, findings and recommendations, we can fully address these matters."

The release of the documents came after the top Republican and Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee said they would continue to press the administration to explain why U.S. spy agencies and government spokesmen initially played down suspected al-Qaida links to the consulate attack.

More to Benghazi attacks than surface at debate

Immediately after the Benghazi attack, U.S. spy agencies produced conflicting reports on who was behind them, U.S. officials said. Most said extremists with possible al-Qaida ties were involved. But a few reports, which the Obama administration emphasized in public statements, said the attacks could have been spontaneous protests against a U.S.-made anti-Muslim video.

Ultimately, the office of the Director of National Intelligence, the top U.S. intelligence authority, declared that the events were a "deliberate and organized terrorist attack" carried out by "extremists" affiliated with or sympathetic to al-Qaida.

Several prominent Republicans are accusing the White House of either covering up, or bungling initial reports about the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Libya. Former Defense Secretary William Cohen joins Andrea Mitchell Reports to discuss the investigation.

On Thursday, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said both intelligence and security problems may have played a role in the attack.

"There's no question but that it was a terrorist attack, there is no question but that the security was inadequate and I think that there is no question that we need to work on our intelligence," Feinstein told KCBS-TV.

Clinton refuses to assign blame for Benghazi attacks?

When asked why the U.S. government initially played down the role of Islamic militants, she said: "I think what happened was the director of intelligence, who is a very good individual, put out some speaking points on the initial intelligence assessment. I think that was possibly a mistake."

But the committee's Republican vice chairman, Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, questioned whether administration officials deliberately omitted possible references to al-Qaida involvement in talking points about the Benghazi attacks.

"Talking points distributed by the administration are nearly identical to intelligence assessments within hours of the attack, except in one important way: the intelligence judgment that the attackers had ties to al-Qaida was excluded from the public points," Chambliss said in a statement on Friday.

"The administration omitted the known links to al-Qaida at almost every opportunity ... Whether this was an intentional effort by the administration to downplay the role of terrorist groups, especially al-Qaida, is one of the many issues the Senate Intelligence Committee must examine," he said.

NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Andrea Mitchell and NBC News producers Catherine Chomiak, Rich Gardella and Libby Leist contributed to this report.?

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Source: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/19/14563362-documents-add-to-evidence-of-security-fears-before-attack-on-us-consulate-in-benghazi?lite

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Saturday, October 20, 2012

Ritholtz's rules of investing (part II) | The Big Picture

Ritholtz?s rules of investing (part II)
Barry Ritholtz
October 12 2012

?

This week, we?re going to pick up with my rules for investing. These rules come from 20 years of experience ? or 20 years of learning from my own mistakes. My list is designed to help you understand what you face as an investor and avoid the sorts of errors that cost many investors a lot of money. Understanding the philosophy here will result in fewer losses, better performance and more restful nights.

Because I didn?t want to overwhelm you, I broke the list into two parts. Before we get to this week?s list, you can read the first part here. For those reading this in the newspaper, those six rules were:

1. Cut your losers short, and let your winners run.

2. Avoid predictions and forecasts

3. Understand crowd behavior.

4. Think like a contrarian.

5. Asset allocation is crucial.

6. Decide if you are an active or passive investor.

Let?s move on to part two:

7. Understand your own psychological make up. Most investors think they are competing against other traders, big institutions, hedge funds etc. In fact, they are their own most dangerous opponent.

Why is that? It is because of the way we are wired. We fall prey to all sorts of cognitive errors. We are overconfident in our abilities to pick stocks, time the market, know when to sell. We suffer from confirmation bias, seeking out that which agrees with us and ignoring facts that challenge our views. We vacillate between emotional extremes of fear and greed. We are surprisingly risk-averse, and at precisely the wrong times. The recency effect has us overemphasizing recent data points while ignoring long-term trends.

Our own cognitive and psychological errors often lead us down the wrong path. You can counter these foibles only if you are aware of them.

8. Admit when you are wrong. One of the biggest problems many investors have is admitting they made a bad investment. Men, suffering as they do from testosterone poisoning, are especially bad at this. Whether it?s ego or just stubbornness, too many people seem to hold on to their losers for way too long. Pride can be a very expensive sin.

The most effective approach is to admit your error, fix the mistake, then move on.

Think of investing as more akin to batting in baseball than to being a lawyer, accountant or doctor. If you are a .333 hitter ? if you get a hit one out of three times at bat ? you are an all-star ball player. A doctor who loses two-thirds of his patients or an accountant who has 66 percent of his clients audited are both doing something terribly wrong.

We have a saying in my office called ?strong opinions weakly held.? We may have a high degree of confidence in a particular investing theme ? say, emerging markets dividends or municipal bonds ? but as soon as we have proof we are wrong, we reverse the position, sell the holding and move on.

I believe in admitting errors and, in fact, each year I publish a list of mea culpas ? describing my worst investing errors. I explain what I did wrong and what I learned from it. It may be human to make mistakes, but it is foolish to make the same ones over and over. Try making some new mistakes instead.

9. Understand the cycles of the financial world. Another challenging thing to do in investing is to reverse your thinking, especially after a specific approach has been profitable for a long time. The longer the period of successful thinking, the more important ? and challenging ? the reversal will be.

Pay attention to history, and you learn that events move in long, irregular cycles. We have the business cycle, which alternates between periods of expansion and contraction. Recessions happen, as do recoveries.

Then there is the market cycle, where booms and busts occur regularly. Every bull market is followed by a bear; every bear market is followed by a bull. This can be difficult to remember when you are in throes of either one. It seemed in 1999 that almost no one could imagine that the manic price rises of the market would ever end.

And in late 2008 and early 2009, it looked like the vicious market collapse would never end. But it did ? and it always does.

?This too shall pass? is a proverb that humbled King Solomon. Understand what it means when you mistakenly believe something will never change.

10. Be intellectually curious. There is a tendency amongst investors to settle into a comfort zone. You develop a particular style, find an investing method you like ? and then think it will last forever. This is a recipe for slothful calcification.

Heraclitus was a Greek philosopher whose doctrine of flux stated ?The only constant is change.? This is especially true in investing. The many different inputs that drive market returns constantly change. At various times, it can be profits, the Fed, the economy, interest rates, technology, tax policy, etc. It is important that you constantly upgrade your skill set, while learning to be both adaptive and flexible.

The best investors all have a healthy dose of intellectual curiosity. If everything else is changing, but you are not, then you are being left behind.

11. Reduce investing friction. Friction refers to all of the little costs that, when compounded over time, can add up to big dollars. In investing, friction refers to anything that is a drag on total returns outside of market performance. Think about the long-term effects of the fees, costs, expenses and taxes on your net, above and beyond how your investments did.

Since 1974, the markets have returned about 10 percent a year. The average 401(k) retirement account earned about 3 percent annually over that period. There are numerous reasons these portfolios radically underperformed the markets, but one of the primary reasons is the layers of excess fees and fund loads.

Investors with lower costs tend to have better growth and retain more of their assets over the long haul. Keep your fees, costs expenses and taxes low. It is a guaranteed way to improve your returns.

12. There is no free lunch. This is the most fundamental rule in all of economics. It gets forgotten by too many investors. The temptation is to get something for nothing.

You never get something for nothing. Consider:

That hot stock tip? You want the upside without doing all of the tax research.

High-yield junk bonds? Some people believe that an 8 percent yield when the 10-year Treasury is paying 1.62 percent does not come with an increased risk of default. They are mistaken.

Sitting in way too much cash? It creates a false illusion of safety that will not keep up with inflation.

No one on television is going to make you wealthy. There is no magic formula or silver bullet or secret hedge fund.

The best investors generate long-term returns by making rational, unemotional decisions. They do their homework, spend time and effort learning the basics. They are unemotional, intelligent and patient. You can be as well.

~~~

Ritholtz is chief executive of FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He is the author of ?Bailout Nation? and runs a finance blog, the Big Picture. You can follow him on Twitter: @Ritholtz. For previous Ritholtz columns, go to washingtonpost.com/business.

Source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/ritholtzs-rules-of-investing-part-ii/

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Book Review : BOOK REVIEW: The Joy of x: A Guided Tour of Math, from One to Infinity by Steven Strogatz

The world would be a better place, it is safe to say, if everybody had a basic understanding of mathematics and an appreciation for its scope and power. Economics, science and medicine, energy and the environment and diverse realms of public policy all depend on math as a guide to factual accuracy, sound judgment and intelligent opinion.

Sadly, the U.S. education system treats math like medicine to be crammed down students? throats because it is good for them, without much effort to explain why. Strogatz, a Cornell mathematician, has now provided a delightful antidote to the math phobia that infects most students exposed to the standard curriculum.

Based on a series of New York Times online op-ed columns, The Joy of X presents the essential ideas of the major branches of math in engaging and entertaining language. Strogatz cuts quickly to the core of everything from basic arithmetic ? addition, subtraction, multiplication, division ? to sophisticated realms such as group theory, vector calculus and quadratic equations. Each chapter explains how such math works and illustrates its relevance to everyone?s life. (Math offers good advice on dating, for instance, and understanding vectors was the key to TV, cell phones and Wi-Fi.)

One slight quibble might be that the two chapters on statistics don?t cope directly with how they are used to draw conclusions from scientific and medical research (a chapter exploring that issue would have been welcome). Nevertheless, anybody reading this book will come away with the deep understanding and appreciation for mathematics that 12 (or 16) years of formal education ought to, but rarely, provides.

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2012, 316 p., $27

***


Source: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/345896/title/Book_Review__BOOK_REVIEW_The_Joy_of_x_A_Guided_Tour_of_Math,_from_One_to_Infinity_by_Steven_Strogatz_

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Happiness Machine prints out Internet joy on demand

16 hrs.

If you find yourself in need of an emotional pick-me-up now and then, this little project might pique your fancy. It prints out a live and happy thought from the Internet whenever you request one.

Brendan Dawes created?The Happiness Machine, as he calls it, earlier this year. What it does is keep an eye on the Internet, via a monitoring service called We Feel Fine, and watch for anyone mentioning "happy" in a public post, tweet or what have you. When you hit that button, it prints a happy thought?right out for you.

Happiness is what it looks for right now, but Dawes says on his website that it's "completely agnostic to the data it prints." In fact, he created a second version of the machine for the recent?London Design festival with two options???happy or sad. And it could be configured to print out the Internet's latest thoughts on politics, the weather or your favorite team. Dawes even tweaked it to tell him whether his train is on time.

Whatever the case, it causes users to realize that the Internet is, in fact, populated by people. As Dawes told design blog Protein:

Placing a small piece of paper in your hands with the feelings of someone you've never met, reminds us that this isn't a network of machines but more importantly a network of human beings.

You can't get your own, although the Little Printer is a bit like it. You can follow Dawes's work at his blog.

Devin Coldewey is a contributing writer for NBC?News Digital. His personal website is?coldewey.cc.

Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/happiness-machine-prints-out-internet-joy-demand-1C6578274

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Friday, October 19, 2012

Cull 'not good deal' for taxpayer

The badger cull in England will cost the taxpayer much more than it saves, an analysis by a UK expert suggests.

While farmers may see economic benefits, the public costs of licensing and policing will exceed ?1m in each pilot area, claims Prof John McInerney.

Shooting badgers is not a good deal in economic terms, the former member of the government's Independent Scientific Group on cattle TB, says.

The NFU said it supported the policy as "TB is getting worse not better".

Professor John McInerney bases his estimates, which have not been published, on Defra's bovine TB impact assessment.

Based on culling in a 150 sq km zone (smaller than the pilot areas) over four years, he said the total costs amount to ?1.55m.

Continue reading the main story

?Start Quote

No other country in the world has ever got on top of this disease without also tackling the reservoir of infection in the wildlife host, thereby breaking the cycle of infection between badgers and cattle?

End Quote Peter Kendall President of the NFU

Of this, ?215,000 is the cost to farmers of paying for shooting the badgers, while the cost to the public purse for the likes of licensing and policing amounts to ?1.335m.

Assuming bovine TB falls by 16% over nine years, as estimates from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) suggest, the economic benefits will reach ?972,000, he said.

This adds up to a net saving for the farmer (?215,000 cost vs ?324,000 benefit) but a net cost to the public purse (?1.335m cost vs ?648,000 saving).

"Overall it's not a good deal," Prof McInerney, emeritus professor of agricultural policy, University of Exeter, said. "It's a good deal for farmers, given how much they pay towards it, but it's a bad deal for taxpayers in strict economic terms."

But he added: "That does not include any of the personal, social costs or stress, or the costs or value associated with badgers themselves."

Andrew Praill, of the British Veterinary Association and president of the British Cattle Veterinary Association, described the figures as "simplistic".

He said it was evident that farmers were committed to the policy as they were prepared to deposit funds to cover the costs of shooting badgers.

"There is fair evidence that the farmers are confident that they are going to end up with a positive result," he said.

Commenting on the estimate, revealed at a briefing by scientific experts in London, the NFU said it supported the government policy of culling badgers because "TB is getting worse not better".

NFU President Peter Kendall said: "34,000 cattle were culled in Great Britain last year alone because they reacted to a TB test. No cattle vaccine is available, and one with the ability to provide near whole herd immunity is years away.

"Badger vaccine is being used and will continue to be used as part of the package of measures in this policy to try and halt the spread of TB.

"But we must remember that no other country in the world has ever got on top of this disease without also tackling the reservoir of infection in the wildlife host, thereby breaking the cycle of infection between badgers and cattle."

Parliamentary debate

Two pilot culls have been given the provisional go-ahead in Gloucestershire and Somerset, which will involve the shooting of free-running badgers over large areas for the next four years.

The Gloucestershire zone covers 300 sq km, while the Somerset pilot zone is 250 sq km.

Farmers say the cull is necessary to stop badgers spreading TB to cattle, a problem which cost farmers and the government an estimated ?150m last year.

The policy has caused heated debate, with backbench MPs securing a parliamentary debate on the issue in the wake of an e-petition which has been signed by more than 150,000 people.

Wales has chosen to follow a policy of vaccinating badgers, while Scotland does not have a TB problem.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19981171#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

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LG?s Rumored Nexus 4 Gets Caught On Film Again, Ahead Of Potential October 29 Unveiling

nexus4evConsidering the sheer volume of leaks and information floating around right now, it's becoming more and more clear that the so-called LG Nexus 4 is the real deal. In case you didn't already have enough to ponder though, the folks behind the infamous @evleaks Twitter account have gotten their hands on yet another photo of the unreleased device and a few new particulars about its size and weight.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/5YWyA1LOO5I/

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